Blackout Watch Germany

Blackout Watch shows forecasts of produced renewable energy in Germany. It predicts upcoming events of Dunkelflaute and sees upcoming energy price spikes.

2 Day Probability

Probability of Dunkelflaute

Low

There is a low probability of Dunkelflaute

Energy price can be expected to stay as they are.

2 Day Forecast

This chart shows the 2 day forecast for solar and wind power efficiency.

Last update on

Data is gathered from multiple forecasting models.

8 Day Probability

Probability of Dunkelflaute

Low

There is a low probability of Dunkelflaute

Energy price can be expected to stay as they are.

8 Day Forecast

This chart shows the 8 day forecast for solar and wind power efficiency.

Last update on

Data is gathered from multiple forecasting models.

2 Day Probability

Probability of Dunkelflaute

Low

There is a low probability of Dunkelflaute

Energy price can be expected to stay as they are.

8 Day Probability

Probability of Dunkelflaute

Low

There is a low probability of Dunkelflaute

Energy price can be expected to stay as they are.

2 Day Forecast

This chart shows the 2 day forecast for solar and wind power efficiency.

Last update on

Data is gathered from multiple forecasting models.

8 Day Forecast

This chart shows the 8 day forecast for solar and wind power efficiency.

Last update on

Data is gathered from multiple forecasting models.

How is it working?

We create forecasts for thousands of wind turbines and solar fields in Germany daily. For every wind turbine and every solar field location we check the next days in metrological forecast data.

>36000 Wind Turbines

>1000 Solar Plants

We then combine the forecasts to create a combined forecast for the entire country. If the combined forecast is under a defined threshold, the probability of Dunkelflaute and sudden energy price spikes is high.

A Critical Challenge for Renewable Energy Systems

Dunkelflaute, a German term combining "dunkel" (dark) and "Flaute" (calm), describes a weather phenomenon that poses significant challenges for renewable energy systems. This period of low wind and minimal solar radiation can last several days or even weeks, particularly during winter months, creating substantial hurdles for power grid stability.

The Impact of Dunkelflaute on Energy Production

During a Dunkelflaute event, renewable energy sources face severe production limitations:

Solar Power Generation

Solar panels operate far below their typical capacity due to:

•Reduced daylight hours
•Heavy cloud coverage
•Possible snow coverage on panels
•Lower solar radiation intensity

Wind Energy Production

Wind turbines experience significant output reduction because of:

•Minimal wind speeds
•High-pressure weather systems
•Stagnant air conditions
•Below-threshold wind velocities

Solutions and Mitigation Strategies

Energy providers and grid operators implement various approaches to manage Dunkelflaute periods:

Short-term Solutions

•Maintaining conventional power plant reserves
•Utilizing energy storage systems
•Implementing demand response programs
•Leveraging cross-border power trading

Long-term Strategic Approaches

•Developing advanced energy storage technologies
•Expanding grid interconnections
•Diversifying renewable energy sources
•Investing in weather forecasting capabilities

Economic Implications

Dunkelflaute events can significantly impact energy markets:

•Increased electricity prices during low-production periods
•Higher operational costs for backup power systems
•Investment requirements for storage solutions
•Market volatility during extended low-production events

Dunkelflaute represents a significant challenge in the transition to renewable energy systems. Successfully managing these periods requires a combination of technological innovation, policy development, and international cooperation. As renewable energy continues to play a larger role in global power generation, addressing Dunkelflaute becomes increasingly important for ensuring reliable and sustainable energy supplies.